Playoff Preview: St. Xavier vs. Colerain

The 2016 post-season is underway as we see two Cincinnati powerhouse programs match up in the second round of the OHSAA Division I playoffs. No. 1 Colerain hosts No. 5 St. Xavier at Hamilton this week, and both teams are looking to stay hot on their path to Columbus.

Colerain OL/DL Howard Watkins (photo by Greg Shoemaker/TriStateFootball.com)

Colerain, the state’s top ranked team, is hoping to keep their undefeated season alive, but the Bombers would like nothing more than to play spoiler to one of their big non-conference rivals.

These two teams are no strangers to each other, as this will be their fourth game against each other dating back to last season. Colerain barely edged out an overtime win against the Bombers earlier this year in week two, as they won 20-14. St. Xavier will also be looking to avenge their playoff loss from last year against the Cardinals, where they lost 42-14.

The victor of this contest will go on to face the winner of the No. 3 Mason vs. No. 7 Sycamore matchup, and will play at a neutral site next week.

Both teams are bringing in high-octane offenses and stout defenses, so expect yet another GCL South-GMC classic.

No. 5 XAVIER BOMBERS (6-5) at No. 1 COLERAIN CARDINALS (11-0)

Kickoff: Friday, November 11th, 7:30 p.m. – Virgil M. Schwarm Stadium

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PLAYERS TO WATCH: Junior QB Chase Wolf is coming off a big game for the Bombers, where he went 21 for 33, passing for 247 yards and four touchdowns. With a little added confidence carrying over into this week, expect him to lead his offense on a dominating pass attack. Senior DB Eugene Stallworth hauled in two interceptions, returning one for a touchdown, last week against Fairfield. He doubled his season total for interceptions, thanks to his performance, and with 34 total tackles on the year, he hopes to help his secondary stop a strong Cardinal offense. St. Xavier’s defensive line had arguably their best game of the season last week, with four sacks and three forced fumbles. Look for them to perform well and hold the run in key situations.

St. Xavier QB Chase Wolf (photo by Mike Noyes/TriStateFootball.com)

Senior FB Monalo Caldwell continues to impress for Colerain, as he posted three touchdowns in the second half last week. He has 16 rushing touchdowns on the year, and he is more than likely to improve that number this week. Amir Riep has had an interception in four straight games, which has Ohio State coaches even more excited about his commitment. He will lead the Cardinal’s defense onto the field, looking to lockdown Bomber receivers.

TEAM TRENDS: St. Xavier had lost three of their last four games going into the playoffs this year, but have now won two in a row thanks to their offense coming alive. In wins this season, the Bombers average over 28 points per game. In losses, they have been outscored 121-60. In their last two contests, their defense has given up an average of two yards per rushing attempt. After going 9-9 on third down conversions in their season finale against Louisville St. Xavier, the Bombers went 1-12 this past week. They will need to control the line of scrimmage and get their offense moving if they want a chance to beat Colerain.

The Cardinals have held six different opponents to a touchdown or less so far this season. Their defense is a big reason as to why they are still undefeated. They have forced 21 turnovers this year and have held opponents to just a 39% conversion rate (44-112) on third downs. They have 27 sacks as a unit and hold opposing offenses to about 10 points a game. Their offense has averaged over 250 rushing yards per game and about 33 points per contest. They had an issue with penalties last week however, racking up 12 penalties for 110 yards. They’ll need to keep their emotions in check if they want to stand tall against a hot Bomber squad. 

Colerain’s Monalo Caldwell.

XAVIER KEYS TO VICTORY: Stuff the box and stop the run. Colerain thrives off Caldwell, QB Deante Smith-Moore and RB JJ Davis finding open lanes to cap off big runs. If they can contain the Cardinal’s fast moving trio, they can stay in the game. The Bombers desperately need Wolf to have another big game through the air. With four interceptions in his last three games, he will need to be smart with the ball and read the dynamic Colerain secondary well enough to avoid costly mistakes. 

COLERAIN KEYS TO VICTORY: Control your play and control the clock. The old saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” applies to the Cardinals in every aspect of the game. They’re undefeated for a reason, and that’s because of a strong rushing attack and stubborn defense. In their meeting earlier this season, Colerain held St. Xavier to just 127 yards of total offense. If their rushing attack continues, the clock will run and will force the Bombers to play catch up, which would limit the time St. Xavier has on offense. This could cause Wolf to play sloppy, which the Cardinals could capitalize on. They also need to play smart and limit their actions after the whistle has blown, as too many penalty yards could keep the Bombers in the game.

Prediction: Colerain 28, St. Xavier 20

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