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Best Bets: Week 7

Dixie Heights RB/LB Brach Rice (photo by Chris Granger / X: @regnargc)

Week 6 may be one for the books. With the loss to Anderson, Winton Woods lost its first regular season game since Oct. 1, 2021 when the Warriors lost to… Anderson. The Warriors should still be considered the favorite in Division II, Region 8, just as the first Harbin computer ratings are released. With just a few weeks left until the playoffs, only a handful of teams remain undefeated going into Week 7.

Will Winton Woods rebound against a tough Kings team? And what should we make of Class 5A, District 6 in Northern Kentucky? Here are this week’s Best Bets.

#4 MOELLER AT #3 ELDER
In typical GCL South fashion, both intra-conference games in Week 6 resulted in one-possession final scores. Moeller and Elder were the big winners of the games, with the Crusaders knocking off the La Salle Lancers and the Panthers beating the St. Xavier Bombers. Both teams are undefeated in GCL South play so far, so one perfect record will come to an end on Friday night at The Pit.

Despite winning the last two games, Moeller quarterback Matt Ponatoski has struggled. After throwing for well over 200 yards each of the first four games, he has only thrown for 62 yards and 145 yards each of the past two games. In Weeks 1-4, his TD to INT ratio was 7:1, whereas it has been 2:2 the past two weeks.

After getting off to a comparatively slow start from what we expected, Jordan Marshall has been heating up in recent weeks. Marshall has rushed for 443 yards and five touchdowns in his last three games, including a 137-yard, one touchdown performance against the Lancers. He averages 6.7 yards per carry and has broken off long runs of 75 yards twice this season. Marshall’s burst of speed is dangerous.

Elder, meanwhile, is 4-2 and coming off back-to-back wins over a pair of St. Xaviers (one in Ohio and one in Kentucky). The Panthers offense runs solely through quarterback Ryan Brass, who is a dual threat with over 100 rushing yards each of the last four games. In last week’s win over St. Xavier (OH), Brass had his best passing game of his career, throwing for 239 yards and two touchdowns.

The Panthers defense will need to step up against the tough Moeller rushing attack. Against the Bombers in Week 6, Elder gave up over 300 rushing yards. They’ll face another tough task with one of the best running backs in the state in Marshall. The Panthers will also need to find a way to keep Moeller out of the end zone. This season so far, Elder has given up at least 28 points in all but one game.

In 2022, Moeller cruised to an easy victory over Elder 42-14 behind a 138-yard four touchdown game by Jordan Marshall. The Crusaders defense also forced four turnovers. As long as Moeller has Marshall, the Crusaders should have the edge and could clinch the outright GCL South title on Friday night.

#14 HAMILTON AT #21 MIDDLETOWN
This is an underrated rivalry game between the two biggest cities in Butler County. After going 2-0 to start the season, Middletown has slid a little bit by going 1-3 in their last four games. The Middies beat Lakota East in Week 5, but then lost in heartbreaking fashion to Mason in Week 6. Hamilton, meanwhile, has rebounded nicely after their 18-0 loss to crosstown rival Badin in Week 1, going 4-1 since and narrowly losing to GMC leader Princeton.

Antonio Mathis leads the Big Blue under center and is putting together a decent season. Mathis has a quarterback rating of 126.2 and has thrown for 858 yards and seven touchdowns. Running back Cournell Bennett-McCoy is coming off his most impressive outing of the season after rushing for 139 yards and a touchdown in the win over Fairfield.

Defensively, Hamilton has given up the third-least amount of points in the GMC with 81. The Big Blue defense has also forced 10 turnovers in GMC play so far. Hamilton has the defense to contain Middletown’s dual threat quarterback and keep the points off the scoreboard.

Speaking of Middletown’s dual threat quarterback, Jerimiah Landers returned under center last week after missing one game due to an injury. Landers threw for 68 yards and two touchdowns while also running for another 66 yards. Running back Eric Schoeder was contained well by the Comets defense, only running for 72 yards. Schroeder has not had a 100-yard rushing game since Week 1 in the win over Loveland. Schroeder is due for another breakout game and what better time for that to happen than during homecoming at Barnitz Stadium?

Hamilton took this game in a frustrating night for the Middies in 2022. Middletown should be extra motivated this year to beat their rivals and pull out the win. Neither team has an edge but don’t be surprised if the Middies find some momentum and rebound from last week’s crushing loss.

#16 HIGHLANDS AT DIXIE HEIGHTS
Death, taxes, and the Highlands Bluebirds heating up as the season goes on. Since the Week 2 loss to Covington Catholic, Highlands has rattled off four straight wins en route to a Class 5A best 5-1 record. Next up for the Bluebirds is a Dixie Heights team that is coming off an impressive 53-0 win. The Colonels are 2-3 on the season, but have played in close games in the three losses, including a one-score loss to Covington Catholic and a one-point overtime loss to Beechwood. The record does not give due credit to an incredibly tough Dixie Heights team that is one or two plays away from knocking off the best teams in Northern Kentucky.

It won’t be easy for the Colonels though as Highlands has scored 272 points in 2023, which is second-best in all of Class 5A. The Bluebirds had an excellent night on the ground in Week 6, rushing for 424 yards and three touchdowns in the 58-51 win over Cooper. Cameron Giesler accounted for 204 of those yards. Brody Benke also had a respectable night through the air, throwing for 235 yards and five touchdowns. The Bluebirds can attack on offense in many different ways, which makes them dangerous against any opponent.

The downfall for Highlands is they give up a lot of points. The Bluebirds defense has given up 168 points, which is among the worst for teams in the top half of the Class 5A standings, The 51 points the unit gave up last week was most it had given up all year. Head Coach Bob Sphire will need to help the unit clean up its mistakes if it want to keep up with a good Dixie Heights offense.

The Colonels are led on offense by quarterback Armani Gregg, who threw for 194 yards and six touchdowns in Week 6 against Boone County. Gregg is also a threat to run the ball, tallying several 100-yard rushing games this season. The offense put up 48 points against a tough Beechwood defense and 24 against Covington Catholic. To put that in perspective, Highlands only scored 21 on Covington Catholic.

Highlands is riding all the momentum now and should have the edge. However, this could be a shootout for both teams and expect the scoreboard to light up with points.

#18 KINGS AT # 9 WINTON WOODS
Winton Woods was knocked off its high perch on top of the Eastern Cincinnati Conference standings last week after losing to Anderson 20-13. The Warriors will look to get back on track against Kings, who did just enough to edge out West Clermont 21-7.

What hurt the Warriors last week was the inability to run the ball. Winton Woods only mustered up 10 rushing yards. The Warriors were also outgained in total offensive yardage 289-172. While the defense of the Warriors is still elite, only giving up 40 points all season and tallying three shutouts, the offense will need to be more efficient and effective in order to get back on track.

Expect Winton Woods to resume being the dominant Winton Woods that we’ve come to expect. Kings has taken a small step backwards after graduating Will Kocher and Michael Mussari from last year’s team, but is still formidable. Kings will put some points on the board but Winton Woods should pull away with their sixth win of the season.

GAME OF THE WEEK
Make sure to check out the COMPLETE PREVIEW for this week’s featured game on the Blitz 5 Tour, CHCA at Purcell Marian.

Here are some other games for teams ranked inside the Blitz 5 Top 25:

OHIO
No. 1 Princeton at Fairfield

Oak Hills at No. 5 Lakota West

Louisville Trinity (KY) at No. 6 St. Xavier

Walnut Hills at No. 7 Milford

Little Miami at No. 8 Anderson

Woodward at No. 10 Withrow

No. 12 Badin at Carroll

Indianapolis Cathedral (IN) at No. 13 La Salle

Hughes at No. 15 Taft

No. 19 Mason at Colerain

Lakota East at No. 20 Sycamore

No. 22 Clinton-Massie at Goshen

Harrison at No. 23 Mount Healthy

Deer Park at No. 24 Wyoming

KENTUCKY
No. 11 Covington Catholic at Grant County

Walton-Verona at No. 17 Beechwood

No. 25 Cooper at Conner

INDIANA
Connersville at No. 2 East Central

 

 

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