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Best Bets: Week 14

Alter RB Rod Owens (photo by Shelby Frieszell/TriStateFootball.com)

Several top seeds in Ohio are now out of the playoffs. Upset after upset, teams who catch fire at the right time are now playing for their title lives in the regional finals. Across the border into the Hoosier State, East Central is one win away from returning to Lucas Oil Stadium for a second consecutive year.

Which non-top seed will find themselves in the state semifinal? Will East Central be packing their bags for a return trip to Indy?  Here are this week’s Best Bets.

#3 LAKOTA WEST VS. #5 MOELLER
Tri-Health/Beacon Stadium at Mason High School

It’s amazing what a simple change at quarterback can do for a team. After starting 0-2, the Lakota West Firebirds made a change at quarterback and haven’t looked back since, winning 11 straight. Last week, the Firebirds got revenge on the Princeton Vikings last week to advance to the regional final against Moeller for a third consecutive year.

Lakota West only needed 219 yards of total offense to get the job done against Princeton. The difference maker has been the Firebirds defense, which forced two turnovers, both interceptions by Finn Mason, one of which was returned 72 yards for a touchdown to put the game away in the fourth quarter. Lakota West’s defense has only given up double-digit points twice this season. The run defense has been especially stout, giving up more than 100 rushing yards in a game just once – in Week 2 against Princeton.

That Firebirds run defense will be put to the test by Moeller, who boasts one of the top running backs in Ohio. After missing two games due to injury, Jordan Marshall has returned back to form. He was slowed down a bit on the ground in last week’s win over Mason, but still racked up over 100 all-purpose yards led by 73 yards receiving. Marshall has rushed for over 100 yards nine times this season. Quarterback Matt Ponatoski has been stellar as well, passing for nearly 3,000 yards and 29 touchdowns this season. Five of those touchdowns came against Mason last week.

In the previous two meetings in the regional finals, Moeller has taken the victory. The Lakota West defense vs. Moeller offense will be a matchup to watch on Friday. This game may be decided by who scores first.

#4 ALTER VS. #6 WYOMING
Hornet Stadium at Monroe High School

This matchup is the tale of two completely different paths to the regional finals. Alter dominated in its upset win over Clinton-Massie, while Wyoming needed 14 unanswered points in a comeback win over Springfield Shawnee. This is the first playoff matchup between these two teams since a 35-7 Alter win in 2016 to advance to the state semifinals. If recent performances are any indication, there could be a similar fate in 2023.

The Knights only needed 214 yards of total offense to knock off Clinton-Massie. In the previous week, the Knights racked up 374 total yards against Indian Hill, a common opponent to Wyoming and the only team to beat the Cowboys this season. The Knights rushed for 233 yards in their matchup against the Braves, led by Rod Owens with 124 yards. Noah Jones is also a stud in the ground game with four games over 100 yards.

Defensively, the Knights have only given up 137 points all season. While Wyoming has taken a small step back from 2022 in terms of putting points on the board, the Cowboys can still light up the scoreboard. The unit has scored 98 points in the playoffs so far and is coming off a 21-point performance with a balance between run and pass.

Alter has a ton of momentum going into this game. It should also be pointed out that the Knights are playing at the same stadium (Monroe Hornet Stadium) that they played at last week. That’s not common in the Ohio playoffs.

#1 VALLEY VIEW VS. #2 WAYNESVILLE
CareFlight Field at Watkins Stadium at Springboro High School

Is there anything better than an intraconference matchup in the regional finals? That’s what we’re getting with Valley View’s regional final tilt with Waynesville. What makes it even more intriguing? Waynesville gave Valley View its only loss of the season in the final week of the regular season in a 49-40 barnburner. Could this end differently for the Spartans?

The Spartans absolutely have the offense to do it. Valley View has only scored less than 35 points in a game once in 2023 – last week in a narrow win over Purcell Marian. In the earlier tilt against Waynesville, Spartan quarterback Caden Henson threw for 382 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 190 yards and four touchdowns. Micah Valenti can also do damage both on the ground and through the air. The offensive unit’s 602 points is among the highest in the state.

Waynesville actually has the quarterback with more passing yards on the season. Alex Amburgy has thrown for 2,621 yards and 25 touchdowns. Against Valley View in Week 10, he threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns. He will need that kind of performance again for a chance to knock off the Spartans a second time.

The difference in the first matchup were two costly interceptions by Valley View. If the Spartans can take care of the ball and maybe force a turnover of their own, Valley View can win its second straight regional championship. If Waynesville wins the turnover battle, the Tigers could go to their first state semifinal ever.

NEW PALESTINE AT EAST CENTRAL (IHSAA CLASS 4A STATE SEMIFINAL)
Stop us if you’ve heard this before. East Central is just one win away from heading back to another state title game. The Trojans are also one win away from picking up its 100th playoff win in program history. Winning is also continuing to come to them in convincing fashion, notching a 47-7 win last week over Evansville Memorial.

Josh Ringer continues to dominate with his excellent efficiency in the run game. Ringer rushed for 214 yards and five touchdowns against Evansville Memorial. He has rushed for at least 135 yards in every single game this season, including five games of over 200 yards and one over 300 yards. The fate of East Central’s title hopes hinges on Ringer continuing to dominate on the ground.

Look for New Palestine to attempt its biggest punch of the season, but East Central should easily roll to another state title game.

GAME OF THE WEEK
Make sure to check out the COMPLETE PREVIEW for this week’s featured game, Anderson vs. Withrow.

 

 

 

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