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Best Bets: Week 12

Lawrenceburg LB/FB Alex Witte (photo by: Sandy Mahoney/Twitter: @InMotionBySandy)

This is the first week that the entire TriStatefootball.com coverage area is in playoff action. We are three weeks into the Indiana playoffs, two weeks into Ohio playoffs, and kicking off Kentucky playoffs this week. Ohio saw some major upsets in the first round of the playoffs. Could we see more on Friday night? Here are this week’s Best Bets.

INDIANA CLASS 3A, SECTIONAL 31 – Championship
BATESVILLE AT LAWRENCEBURG
It’s sectional championship week in Indiana, which brings together two teams in Sectional 31 for a rematch from the regular season that saw the Lawrenceburg Tigers knock off the Batesville Bulldogs 37-0. The Bulldogs have gone 4-1 since that game on Sept. 23 and are looking to continue this strong run.

If Batesville wants to keep up, the offense will have to find ways to put points on the board against a stout Tigers defense that has only given up 64 points all season. The Tigers have also posted seven shutouts in 2022. In the first matchup of these two teams, Batesville only ran 47 plays on offense compared to Lawrenceburg’s 59 plays. The Bulldogs also only picked up five first downs all game.

For the Tigers, they just have to continue doing what they do: force turnovers on defense and tire the other team’s defense by running the ball on offense. Lawrenceburg has tallied nearly twice as many rushing yards (1,853) than passing yards (943). Five different players have over 100 rushing yards on the season, led by Teagan Bennett with 699 yards and 10 touchdowns. On defense, the Tigers have forced 25 turnovers. Breaking that down, Tigers defensive players have picked off 12 passes and recovered 13 fumbles.

The last time these two teams faced off in the playoffs was 2018 when the Bulldogs won 28-22. The Bulldogs also won the regular season matchup that season in an overtime thriller. On paper, Lawrenceburg has too many weapons on both sides of the ball and have just been dominating opponents at the line of scrimmage. However, Batesville isn’t in the sectional championship on accident. They have found a groove these past five weeks since the earlier loss to the Tigers. It could be close early, but Lawrenceburg will pull away with it and advance.

OHIO DIVISION I, REGION 4
#7 MILFORD AT #2 ELDER
What happens when you pit a team that scores an average of 39 points per game against a team that only gives up on average 16 points a game against some of the best competition across the state? You get an intriguing second round matchup at The Pit when the Elder Panthers from the always-difficult GCL South against the Milford Eagles of the offense-happy Eastern Cincinnati Conference.

It’s true. Milford knows how to light up a scoreboard, scoring at least 40 points in eight games this season, including putting up their highest point totals these past two weeks. In the final week of the regular season, Milford dominated Turpin with a 56-point offensive performance behind the rocket arm of Austin Hardin. Hardin threw for 301 yards and four touchdowns in the win. Hardin followed that performance up with a dominating 263 yards and five touchdowns last week against Western Hills in the 62-16 Round 1 win. Oh, and the defense isn’t too shabby either. The unit forced three turnovers in the win over the Mustangs.

Milford faces perhaps its biggest test of the year (outside of the game against Winton Woods) when the Eagles travel to one of the hardest places to play as an opposing team. Elder is riding a four game win streak after its only GCL South loss to Moeller. In the last two games, the Panthers are outscoring their opponents 80-14. Outside of the Moeller game, the Panthers defense has been fantastic, holding opponents to 23 or less points all season. The offensive attack is pretty balanced. Quarterback Ben Schoster only threw nine complete passes last week against Middletown, but they went for a combined 278 yards and four touchdowns. Elder ran the ball 29 times for 179 yards and three touchdowns as well.

Despite being a 2-7 rumble in The Pit, this may be one of the more evenly-matched games in the area. Either team could conceivably win, based on their performances so far this season the ability to move the ball down the field. For Milford, let the offense continue to roll through Hardin and don’t allow the intimidation factor of The Pit limit the ceiling. For Elder, try to slow down Hardin and force turnovers and put the ball in Schoster’s hands. If the Eagles can score early and often, Schoster may be forced to throw the ball more than nine times. Slight edge to the Panthers for the sole reason of the home crowd, but don’t be shocked if Milford pulls off the upset.

OHIO DIVISION II, REGION 8
#5 WITHROW AT #4 KINGS
There may be no hotter team in the Tri-State right now than the Withrow Tigers, who are currently streaking with seven straight wins while outscoring their opponents in the span 273-45. Kings, meanwhile, would be undefeated if it weren’t for a nail biting loss to perhaps the best team in Division II, Winton Woods. When looking at these two teams, it’s easy to see why this is an evenly-matched 4-5 showdown.

When we talk about the absolute greats at the quarterback position in the area in 2022, Will Kocher’s name is always in that conversation. The senior has thrown for a ridiculous 945 yards and 10 touchdowns just in the last two games. He has also rushed for nearly 100 yards in that span as well. On the season, Kocher has passed for 3,297 yards and 37 touchdowns, both of which rank second in the ECC. Top target Michael Mussari has been on the receiving end of 1,222 of those yards and 20 touchdowns. This quarterback-receiver duo is one of the most dangerous duos the ECC has ever seen and will be a tough test for a Withrow defense which has held its own against top talent this year.

Withrow’s offense is led by quarterback Troy Montgomery, a true dual-threat quarterback who passed for 251 yards and rushed for 101 more in the Tigers’ Round 1 game against another ECC foe, Loveland. Montgomery has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season. The Tigers offense has scored at least 38 points in each of its last five games. However, the Kings defense has only given up 129 points all season, which is the lowest total in all of the Eastern Cincinnati Conference.

Initial reaction may be to take the Knights due to a tougher conference and tougher competition throughout the season. This will be the third ECC opponent for former ECC member Withrow, after beating Loveland last week in Walnut Hills in Week 1 of the season by a combined score of 89-14. If Withrow can effectively slow down Kocher and allow its own offense to make plays, this game could stay close early.

OHIO DIVISION III, REGION 12
#10 MONROE AT #2 WESTERN BROWN

Division III, Region 12 will feature a rematch of a regular season game where 116 total points were scored with the Western Brown Broncos knocking off the Monroe Hornets 65-51. In 2021, the Hornets beat the Broncos, also in a high-scoring affair, 66-48. That’s 230 points scored in two games the past two seasons.

What to expect in this one? Well, if history is doomed to repeat itself, then you can bet on a whole lot of offense and not a lot of defense. Drew Novak is the star of the Broncos offense, continuing to shatter passing records in the OHSAA record book. However, over the last two weeks, the Broncos offense has been much more balanced. In combination with Novak’s arm, running back Zackery Chisman’s legs have provided a one-two punch to opposing offenses, rushing for 336 yards over the past two weeks. This provides a scary offensive attack that could one again light up the scoreboard against a Monroe defense that has been able to stop the Broncos in the last two meetings.

Monroe’s offense is much more run-based. Despite star running back Elijah Jackson out last week in the playoff win against Hughes, the Hornets were still able to rack up 376 yards on the ground en route to the 53-15 win.

If you like points, points, and more points, this will be the game to go to on Friday night.

 

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