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Best Bets: Week 13

Wyoming RB CJ Hester (photo by Shelby Frieszell/TriStateFootball.com)

Playoffs in 2022 appear to prove a point: perhaps the expanded playoffs aren’t a bad thing after all. In the first playoff Friday night, a No. 15 seed (Little Miami) beat a No. 2 seed (Xenia). In this week’s column, we are highlighting two double-digit seeds in the regional semifinals. None of those teams would have those upset opportunities in the old playoff format.

Will we see a double-digit seed in the regional finals next week? Here are this week’s Best Bets.

OHIO DIVISION I, REGION 4
#2 ELDER v.s. #3 LAKOTA WEST (To be played at Princeton)
This has the makings of an old school playoff classic. A game decided by one possession featuring two teams coached by local high school football legends in Doug Ramsey and Tom Bolden. While Lakota West has been the No. 1 team in our Blitz 5 Top 25 all season, Elder will provide the Firebirds with their biggest test all season.

When comparing the two schedules, the Panthers and Firebirds have two common opponents this season: St. Xavier and Middletown. The Firebirds faced the Bombers in Week 1 of the season, escaping with a nailbiting 16-13 comeback win in the final seconds. The Panthers took on the Bombers as part of the GCL South conference schedule, easily dispatching of St. Xavier 42-10 in the Pit. The Middies hosted the Firebirds as part of the GMC schedule with Lakota West coming away with a decisive 33-7 win. Elder played host to Middletown in the first week of the playoffs, beating the Middies 49-7.

But this is the playoff. Anything can happen. So what does matter?

Elder is on an offensive tear. The Panthers have racked up 828 yards of total offense in two playoff games and are outscoring their opponents 80-13. They’re getting great production all around, including from quarterback Ben Schoster and running back Luke Flowers. Elder also got a breakout performance in last week’s win over Milford from Walnut Hills transfer Jack Reuter, who amassed 113 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Lakota West is also on an offensive tear, as well as a defensive tear. The Firebirds have not allowed a point in the playoffs so far and are outscoring opponents 78-0. Despite having nearly 300 less yards of total offense than Elder in the playoffs, Lakota West is getting it done on the defensive side of the ball, allowing only 310 yards of combined offense compared to Elder allowing 403 yards of offense. Elder, however, faced one of the most high-octane offenses in the area in Milford, limiting Eagles quarterback Austin Hardin to only 109 yards passing.

One more note about the schedules of these two teams. It’s been believed that a team that is tested in the regular season is a team that is prepared come playoff time. With the GMC going to a nine-game conference schedule this season, Lakota West lost an opportunity to schedule a statewide, high-caliber opponent. Elder, with a three-game conference schedule, loaded its schedule with some of the best teams in Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana. From Indiana, the Panthers beat a Roncalli team that went 12-1 in 2021. From Kentucky, the Panthers knocked off both a incredibly tough Covington Catholic team and a Louisville St. Xavier team that looks to be the favorite to win the 6A state title. Being challenged up to this point is an understatement.

Look for that experience against upper-echelon teams to be a factor in the preparation for this game. Elder knows what it takes to win and Lakota West should take notice. However, never count out Mitch Bolden. If he brings his A-game, he could have a very good night. This is a toss-up.

OHIO DIVISION II, REGION 8
#3 EDGEWOOD v.s. #10 ANDERSON (To be played at Little Miami)
The Anderson Raptors have an incredibly explosive offense, but a defense that needs to be shored up if they want to keep this Cinderella run alive. Edgewood, meanwhile, has caught fire just at the right time, notching 11 straight wins heading into the regional semifinals. The Cougars and the Raptors have one common opponent, Anderson’s ECC foe Milford. The Raptors fell to the Eagles in a close one, 48-47, while Edgewood had a harder time with Milford, dropping the season-opening game 42-6.

Pregame Interview: Evan Dreyer, Anderson Head Coach

How will Anderson win? Griffin Scalf being Griffin Scalf. The senior quarterback has thrown for 3,826 yards and 28 touchdowns, while also running for nine more touchdowns. He has thrown for 300 yards in a game eight times this season, although he has not thrown for 300 yards yet in the playoffs. That’s okay though because the running game complements the Raptors passing game well, with 150 or more rushing yards in both playoff games so far. To pull off the win though, the Raptors will have to limit turnovers. Anderson turned the ball over three times in last week’s win over Little Miami. Cut down on those and Anderson has a shot at going to the regional finals.

How will Edgewood win? Let Tavionne Crosby cook. The star running back for the Cougars has rushed for at least 134 yards and two touchdowns in each of the last six games. Crosby should have a good night, as Anderson gives up an average of 177 rushing yards a game. This could especially be important if weather becomes a factor, limiting what Scalf can do through the air. If Edgewood can score early on a vulnerable Anderson defense, the Cougars should find themselves playing for a regional championship.

OHIO DIVISION IV, REGION 16
#1 WYOMING v.s. #13 CLINTON-MASSIE (To be played SATURDAY at Lakota West)
Starting 0-4 is never a good way to kick off a journey back to Canton after capturing a state title in 2021, but that’s exactly what happened to the Clinton-Massie Falcons who now find themselves one win away from a trip back to the regional finals. But it won’t be easy as the Falcons face a Wyoming Cowboys team that has shut out opponents nine times this season and is outscoring opponents 481-28.

Pregame Interview: Dan McSurley, Clinton-Massie Head Coach

Sports media is beginning to sound like a broken record talking about how great CJ Hester is for the Cowboys. The senior running back has rushed for 2,461 yards and 40 touchdowns this season. He also plays a mean defensive back in the stifling Wyoming defense. Speaking of that defense, Wyoming only averages giving up 107 yards of total offense on the season to opposing offenses. If it’s true the defense does indeed win championships, Wyoming should have no problem with that this season.

Clinton-Massie, on the other hand, is looking to defend its title by playing its traditional triple-option offense. In last week’s 56-42 win over Urbana, Logan Chesser rushed for 302 yards and three touchdowns while Brody Clutter added 176 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Gavan Hunter also rushed for 148 yards. In total, the Falcons offense rushed for 625 yards anf eight touchdowns last week. All without even throwing a pass.

If there’s one team in Division IV, Region 16 that can pull off the upset of Wyoming, it may very well be the defending state champions. Expect this game to be run-heavy. Ultimately, it will come down to which defense can make the most stops.

OHIO DIVISION IV, REGION 16
#2 TAFT v.s. #6 MCNICHOLAS (To be played SATURDAY at Princeton)
McNicholas is also in familiar territory, looking to advance to another regional final in back-to-back years. The Rockets will have to get through a red hot team in the Taft Senators, who are winners of six straight, but are coming off a game in which they gave up the most points they have all season.

The Rockets are having quite a remarkable season behind the young arm of sophomore quarterback Braden Bobo, who has thrown for 436 yards and six touchdowns over the past two playoff games. He has thrown for at least 200 yards in five games this season. If Bobo can keep up the impressive performance, the Rockets could pull off the upset of the Senators.

Taft, meanwhile, must get their defense back to where it was earlier in the season. The Senators have posted seven shutouts this season. That’s an impressive feat, particularly against fellow CMAC opponents Hughes and Western Hills, as well as out-of-conference foes Roger Bacon and Indian Hill. Force turnovers and get off the field on third down. If Taft can do that, expect them to make it to the regional finals.

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