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Best Bets: Week 4

Withrow WR Quintin Simmons Jr. (photo by Amber Duncan/TriStateFootball.com)

Week 3 muddied many of the 2023 storylines, making this season even more intriguing. After a rare 0-2 start, Lakota West switched quarterbacks for Week 3 and found itself on the right side of a shut out. East Central knocked off Moeller after taking a thumping from the Crusaders in 2022. And Beechwood gave up 48 points and still won.

What does that mean going into Week 4? At this point, nobody knows. The GMC is upside down, the GCL is still playing out-of-state teams, and one team in a new conference, Edgewood, finds itself at 0-3. Over in Northern Kentucky, offense is king with several teams eclipsing 50 points on a week-in, week-out basis.

Here are this week’s Best Bets.

#3 ST. XAVIER AT #6 WITHROW
St. Xavier finally gets a game in the Greater Cincinnati area after two weeks on the road. And when we say “on the road,” we mean road trips. The Bombers have played in Detroit, MI, and Chattanooga, Tenn. the last two weeks, respectively, going 1-1 in those games. 

In the latter game (against McCallie), the Bombers went up against the top ranked team in Tennessee, featuring a quarterback, Jay St. Hilaire, who has the capability of taking over the game by himself. St. Hilaire is a Vanderbilt commit and someone who you may hear a lot about on Saturdays if you’re an SEC fan. The Bombers defense held St. Helaire to a modest 163 yards passing and three touchdowns. After taking the reins about midway through last season as a sophomore, Chase Herbstreit is beginning to come into his own and take control of the offense. In the win over Martin Luther King Jr. (MI), Herbstreit set career highs in touchdown passes. St. Xavier has also gotten significant contributions from the run game.

The Bombers defense will have their hands full on Friday night against a Withrow team that has scored 42 points in two of their first three games, led by a star wide receiver group and a stellar quarterback in Luke Dunn. Dunn has already thrown for 739 yards and nine touchdowns on the season. In last week’s contest against Lima, he threw for 340 yards and four touchdowns. The Tigers receiver corps is led by Chris Henry Jr., Quinten Simmons, and Myles Rochelle. St. Xavier’s defense had better have a plan drawn up to cover all three of those players. If one of them has a breakout game, it could spell trouble for Withrow.

This game is a classic David vs. Goliath matchup. It’s very rare when a GCL South school faces a CMAC school. It’s even rarer on the road. Without the need for long travel and having more experience against some of the best teams in the country, St. Xavier should carry this game. However, don’t expect David to go down without a fight.

#8 ANDERSON AT #10 MILFORD
This Eastern Cincinnati Conference matchup has been defined by offense over the years. In 2022, 95 points were scored between the two teams, racking up 970 yards of total offense in the 48-47 Milford win. It featured two of the best quarterbacks in the Greater Cincinnati area in Austin Hardin and Griffin Scalf, with both throwing for over 370 yards.

Fast forward to 2023 and both Hardin and Scalf are gone. However, both teams are still scoring points at a high rate and find themselves at 3-0 and tied for the top of the ECC standings. After narrowly avoiding an upset loss to Lebanon, Milford rebounded in Week 3 to put up 52 points on Loveland, led by new quarterback Luke Brand, who threw for 423 yards and two touchdowns. Brand also added two rushing touchdowns. Nathan Webster, the returning running back for the Eagles, accumulated 127 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Milford’s offense is still the high-octane offense we grew to be intrigued by, but the defense is a tad suspect. Over the last two games, the Eagles defense has given up a combined 63 points to two middle-of-the-pack ECC teams. If Milford wants to keep up with Anderson’s high-powered offense, it will need to find a way to make stops and give the ball back to the offense.

On the other sideline, Anderson has also simply retooled with quarterback Justice Burnham, who has led a Raptors offense that has scored the most points in the ECC so far with 136 points. Burnham has an incredible 11:1 touchdown to interception ratio so far and is primed to add to that against Milford. The Raptors defense is a little more trustworthy, led by Joey Emrick and Walnut Hills transfer TJ Nelson. The 43 points allowed is the second-best mark in the ECC, only behind Winton Woods.

This game could be a shootout once again and could come down to which defense makes critical stops. Right now, the edge goes to Anderson.

#24 CLINTON-MASSIE AT #14 MOUNT HEALTHY
Clinton-Massie has a history of playing against SWOC schools. The Falcons went 1-1 against SWOC schools in 2022, losing a close one to Edgewood and taking a 31-17 win over Harrison. Playing the bigger schools is typical of Clinton-Massie, as it will take on another SWOC school on Friday when the Falcons will travel to face fellow undefeated team Mount Healthy.

The pair of 3-0 teams are coming into this game following close wins. The Fighting Owls fought to a 22-7 win over Wilmington behind a 227-yard, two-touchdown game from quarterback Jahmeir Spain. Israel Bradford contributed 145 yards on the ground. Before that game, though, a couple of dominating performances against Ross and Little Miami.

The script is nearly the same for Clinton-Massie. After crushing Waynesville and Edgewood in back-to-back games, the Falcons had a bit of a closer win against Tri-Valley. Clinton-Massie plays tough and will run you into the ground, literally and figuratively. In Week 2 against Edgewood, the Falcons didn’t pass the ball once. In Week 1, they only passed it once.

If Mount Healthy’s run defense is up to the challenge, the Fighting Owls can have a shot. However, in the Week 2 game against Ross, the Rams were able to rack up 315 rushing yards. It didn’t matter though, as they only scored 14 points and the Fighting Owls scored 40.

Biggest difference between Ross and Clinton-Massie, however? The Falcons score. And they score a lot. Both the Falcons and Fighting Owls are 3-0, but only one team is going to 4-0. Expect Clinton-Massie to pull off the upset.

#25 RYLE AT HIGHLANDS
It didn’t take long for Highlands to bounce back after the crushing loss to Covington Catholic, destroying Campbell County 67-35 a week later. Ryle, meanwhile, edged out Cooper for bragging rights in Union with a 28-10 victory. Both teams are riding momentum heading into this huge matchup in Fort Thomas on Friday night.

In the win over Campbell County, Highlands had two quarterbacks throw for over 240 yards. Brody Benke threw for 263 yards and four touchdowns while Rio Litmer threw for 249 yards and four touchdowns. The Bluebirds also had five receivers with at least 50 yards. When Highlands’ offense starts to click, it is hard to stop.

Ryle, meanwhile, has been stout on defense over the past two weeks. Since the opening round loss to Covington Catholic, the Raider defense has only given up 17 points. That’s impressive, considering the combined record of Ryle’s first four opponents is 9-3.

The Raiders defense will have its hands full on Friday night against the high-powered Highlands offense. They say defense wins championships but take it from Highlands, it takes a great offense too. Give the Bluebirds the edge.

GAME OF THE WEEK
Make sure to check out the COMPLETE PREVIEW for this week’s featured game on the Blitz 5 Tour, Simon Kenton at No. 23 Beechwood..

Here are some other games for teams ranked inside the Blitz 5 Top 25:

OHIO
No. 1 Winton Woods at Turpin

No. 2 Princeton at No. 20 Mason

St. Edward at No. 5 Elder (Saturday)

No. 19 Middletown at No. 7 Lakota West

No. 9 Moeller at Center Grove (IN)

No. 12 Kings at Loveland

Meadowdale at No. 13 Taft

No. 15 La Salle at Louisville Central (KY)

Roger Bacon at No. 16 Badin

No. 17 Hamilton at Oak Hills

No. 18 Sycamore at Colerain

No. 23 Fairfield at No. 21 Lakota East

KENTUCKY
Dixie Heights at No. 11 Covington Catholic

INDIANA
No. 4 East Central at Franklin County

 

 

 

 

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