Best Bets: N. Kentucky – Week 11

Kentucky opens its playoff season this weekend, and the first week typically means tons of blowouts, as the best team in each four-team district faces the last-place team in another.

The intriguing matchups are the middles, the 2-vs.-3 seeds, as strong districts can often have better third-place teams than other have No. 2-seeded squads.

Here are the Best Bets for Week for the first weekend of the playoffs in Northern Kentucky:

Class A

No. 3 Ludlow (3-7) at No. 2 Louisville Holy Cross (6-4), 7 p.m. – That five-point loss to Bellevue in Week 8 proved costly for Ludlow, which now has to go on the road to pace a much stronger Holy Cross team. The Panthers have lost five of six, with their last two defeats both coming by five points. Thousand-yard rusher Justin Blackburn is Ludlow’s main offensive weapon, as he has also scored the majority of the Panthers’ ground touchdowns. Holy Cross also lost a tight one last week, falling at Fairdale, 28-21. Mario Convenuto has 952 rushing yards, and the Cougars throw about 14 times a game, with Max Bearden and Gavin Foushee being QB Jarren McDonald’s top targets.

No. 3 Frankfort (3-7) at No. 2 Bellevue (3-7), 7:30 p.m. – After three straight 10-win seasons, including a state semifinal berth in 2013 thanks to a win over Beechwood, Frankfort has won just six games the past two seasons. The Panthers have thrown 145 passes this season but love to hand off to Tremayne Jones, who is hovering around the 1,000-yard mark this season. Another team in a strange down year is Bellevue, which also has six wins in two years after four straight winning campaigns in 2011-14. But the Tigers did earn home field for this round by beating Ludlow. RB Adam Hazares has been Bellevue’s only major offensive threat with 492 ground yards and a five touchdowns.

No. 3 Brossart (8-2) at No. 2 Raceland (8-2), 7:30 p.m. – Yes, Brossart is actually a three seed despite an 8-2 record and 3-1 mark in district play, losing a three-way tiebreaker. The Mustangs have won five straight, averaging 44.0 points during that span. QB Chase Keller is not only have a solid season passing, going 94 of 187 for 1,684 yards and 22 TDs, he leads the team in rushing with 669 yards and 10 scores. Raceland was 8-0 before losing to Paintsville in overtime Week 9 and falling by a point against Russell to close out the regular season. A truly balanced team, especially for Class A, Nathaniel Davidson has thrown for 2,401 yards and has a 61.3 percent completion rate. John Cherry has caught 71 passes for 963 yards. Bailey Walker leads the ground attack with 1,050 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Class 2A

No. 3 Owen County (5-5) at No. 2 Holy Cross (7-3), Thursday, 7 p.m. – Perhaps that recent basketball success is bleeding over into football in Owenton, as the Rebels went 6-5 last year and have a shot at another winning season. And Owen County got back to .500 despite an 0-3 start. The Rebels throw a dozen times a game with little success, but Austin Riggs has been their workhorse in the backfield with 906 yards and 12 touchdowns. Speaking of rejuvenated squads, Holy Cross went 1-10 in 2013 and 2014, and after improving to 6-6 last year, the Indians are ensured their first winning season since 2011. Holy Cross has ripped its last three opponents, outscoring them 154-12. Derrick Barnes has rushed for 1,201 yards on a team that averages fewer than 80 passing yards.

No. 3 Lloyd (5-5) at No. 2 Gallatin County (6-4), 7:30 p.m. – It looked like Lloyd was going to have an outstanding defense, as the Juggernauts allowed just 12 points through three games – including a loss to Beechwood – but that corps has give up 90 points its last three games. Justin Durham is a 1,000-yard rusher, and Lashunn Townsend has 556 receiving yards. Gallatin County had back-to-back losing seasons following its 10-3 season in 2013. Dustin Johnson is around the 1,000-yard mark on the ground on a team that depends on success running the ball.

Class 5A

Dixie Heights RB Jose Torres (photo by Michael Noyes/TriStateFootball.com)

No. 3 Louisville Southern (4-6) at No. 2 Dixie Heights (5-5), 7:30 p.m. – Southern is actually in a six-team district, so the third-place team is pretty solid despite its record. That said, the Trojans haven’t posting a winning record since 2003, and their chances this year took a major hit with consecutive losses to wrap up their regular season campaign. Southern has little offense, gaining just 192.3 yards per game, but the Trojans’ calling card has been a defense that allows an average of just 243.6 yards and has surrendered more than 21 points just two times. Dixie Heights also dropped its final two decisions and passes fewer than eight times a game, a surprising total for a Class 5A team. But the Colonels have Jose Torres, who leads the team with 1,232 rushing yards and 12 TDs, and Cameron Barrett and Austin Rice have also gained over 500 ground yards each.

No. 3 Highlands (3-7) at No. 2 Louisville Doss (5-5), 7:30 p.m. – Yep, Highlands is actually on the road for the first round of the playoffs. The Bluebirds beat Grant County, 50-0 Week 9 to earn a three seed and made it a two-game winning streak by pounding Boone County last week. Highlands enters the playoffs surrendering 41.1 points per game – and 287 rushing yards – despite the shutout of the Braves. Brady Gosney has thrown for 26 touchdowns, and Alex Veneman has caught 11, leading the team with 898 receiving yards. Doss has a losing record but has dropped three decision by 11 points or fewer. The Dragons have held opponents to 77.3 passing yards per game, which will make for an interesting matchup against Highlands’ offense. Hamilton Wilson has rushed for 1,204 yards and 12 TDs and will be a tough matchup for the Bluebirds defensively.

Class 6A

Cooper WR/DB Dante Hendrix (photo by Michael Noyes/TriStateFootball.com)

No. 3 Cooper (6-4) at No. 2 Lexington Bryan Station (4-6), 7:30 p.m. – Cooper entered last week averaging 39.1 points but was held to seven by Conner. But the Jaguars have outstanding balance, as Jaden Jackson has rushed for 1,002 yards and Dante Hendrix seemingly leads the planet with 1,211 receiving yards – averaging 20.2 yards per catch – and 18 touchdowns. QB Jaren Lonaker finished the regular season 164-for-286 for 2,758 yards, 28 TDs and just six picks. And that combination bodes well for Cooper against Bryan Station, which has the ironic nickname of the Defenders despite allowing 36.7 points and 368.5 yards per game. The team throws the ball 55 percent of the time – a very high rate for high school – and QB Jalen Burbage utilizes numerous receivers in the passing game. Burbage is 155 of 253 for 1,703 yards and 19 TDs, but he has been intercepted 15 times. Five Bryan Station players have over 250 receiving yards.

No. 2 Lexington Paul Dunbar (3-7) at No. 3 Conner (8-2), 7:30 p.m. – After an 0-4 start, the boys’ soccer power won three of four before allowing 73 points to Scott County as it dropped its final two of the regular season. The Bulldogs have done little on the ground this season and throw the ball 26 times per game. Gavin Bugg has thrown for 1,837 yards, with Tre Homer hauling in 46 passes for 768 yards and nine scores. Conner has just two losses this season – one to Simon Kenton and the other to Ryle by a total of 26 points. The Cougars have outscored their opponents, 354-147. Armand Jackson has been a force on the ground, gaining 1,128 yards, scoring 19 TDs and averaging 9.2 yards per carry. QB Walker Buelow has thrown for 1,568 yards, has a 62.3 percent completion rate and has hooked up with Matt Simpson 26 times for 604 yards.

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